The future of grocery eCommerce: Bridging digital and in-store experiences

Grocery eCommerce is the default extension of retail

Online grocery shopping has moved firmly into the mainstream. What began as a convenience-driven behavior during the pandemic has become a habitual part of everyday life, especially in urban markets where time is limited and expectations for convenience are high.

In fact, online grocery is expected to be the fastest-growing channel globally between 2024 and 2029, with a CAGR of 6.0%. This will result in an additional US$164 billion worth of sales, ultimately generating a total of US$646 billion in 2029. 

US online grocery sales rose 32% to a record US$12.7 billion in December 2025. Higher order frequency, increased spending and a growing shopper base drove the strongest month on record for online grocery sales. Moreover, shoppers aged 30 to 44 showed the strongest growth in frequency, with orders up 17% to 3.2 per month.

Today’s shoppers rarely distinguish between “online” and “offline” grocery shopping. Instead, they move fluidly between channels depending on context, ordering delivery during the week, picking up items on the way home and visiting stores for fresh or sensory-driven purchases. 

Meanwhile, advances in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and analytics enable grocers to manage precise demand forecasting, optimize inventory to reduce waste and enhance customer experiences through personalized recommendations. Enhanced loyalty programs that provide exclusive discounts, birthday perks or cashback incentives are great ways to boost engagement and repeat business.

However, it’s not all smooth sailing. Managing the freshness of perishable goods, ensuring accurate orders and offering seamless omnichannel integration present real challenges. Real-time inventory management and predictive analytics ensure customers get what they order without disappointment. Transparency around allergens, nutritional content and sustainability is another box retailers must check to win the trust of today’s increasingly ethical shoppers.

Maximizing online grocery shopping opportunities

To fully capitalize on the growth of online grocery shopping, retailers must adopt a multifaceted approach that aligns with modern consumer expectations and operational advancements.

Adopt unified commerce strategies

Creating seamless transitions between online and in-store shopping is essential. Models like buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) blend the convenience of digital ordering with the immediacy of in-store fulfillment, reducing shipping costs while boosting customer satisfaction. 

Furthermore, mobile-first shopping continues to reshape the industry, with smartphones as indispensable tools for grocery consumers. Retailers are responding by creating user-friendly apps with features such as barcode scanning, voice-activated search and instant payment capabilities. Unified promotions across platforms ensure consistent messaging, enabling retailers to connect with shoppers wherever they engage.

Enhance the customer experience

Personalization is key to driving loyalty and increasing average basket sizes. AI-driven insights allow retailers to deliver tailored discounts, product bundles and recommendations that appeal to individual preferences such as health-conscious or sustainable choices. Loyalty programs help create long-term customer engagement through exclusive perks, rewards and promotions that encourage repeat business.

Subscription models like “subscribe and save” remain strong, particularly for staples like coffee and pet food, delivering both customer convenience and predictable revenue streams for retailers. Additionally, the adoption of buy now, pay later (BNPL) options is surging, especially among younger generations, who value flexible payment solutions.

Leverage operational efficiencies

When synchronized with commerce, real-time inventory visibility data also allows grocers to optimize fulfillment options, such as same-day delivery or curbside pickup, further streamlining the shopping experience and meeting sustainability targets. By combining real-time insights with seamless omnichannel experiences, grocers can maintain the freshness of perishable goods, forecast demand for perishable items and ensure that online orders reflect availability, eliminating post-order disappointments. 

Flexible fulfillment

The modern grocery journey is rarely linear. A customer might start a basket on mobile, modify it later on desktop and finally choose curbside pickup based on timing. What matters isn’t the channel, but the continuity of the experience.

This has made flexible fulfillment models essential to grocery retail, including:

• Buy Online, Pick Up In Store (BOPIS).
• Curbside pickup for speed and convenience.
• Same-day delivery for immediate needs.
• Scheduled replenishment for household staples.

Rather than competing with physical stores, digital grocery is now tightly integrated with them. Stores increasingly act as fulfillment hubs, while digital channels become the front door to the entire retail network.

Innovations in last-mile delivery, such as micro-fulfillment centers and AI-optimized routing, ensure faster and more sustainable delivery options, addressing both customer expectations and environmental concerns.

How AI is reshaping online grocery shopping

Artificial intelligence has been part of grocery operations for years, primarily for demand forecasting and product recommendations. But a more significant shift is now underway: AI is moving from insight generation to action-taking systems.

This emerging layer, often referred to as agentic AI, enables systems to suggest decisions, as well as execute them in real time across the value chain. 

In grocery stores, this is beginning to show up in practical ways.

Smarter inventory and replenishment

AI systems can now anticipate demand fluctuations based on weather, local events and purchasing patterns and automatically trigger replenishment before shelves run empty. This reduces both stockouts and overstocking, which is especially critical for perishable goods, where timing directly impacts waste.

Intelligent substitutions during fulfillment

Out-of-stock items are one of the biggest friction points in online grocery. Agentic AI can step in during picking or checkout to recommend context-aware substitutions that consider dietary preferences, brand loyalty and price sensitivity.

Real-time optimization of delivery and picking

From store aisles to last-mile delivery, AI can dynamically optimize routes, batching and order allocation based on capacity, traffic and urgency. The result isn’t just faster delivery, but more efficient use of resources across the entire system.

Personalization 

Personalization is becoming embedded directly in the shopping journey, with grocery retailers using real-time data to dynamically shape baskets by adjusting suggestions based on dietary needs, budget constraints and shopping history. In practice, this can look like:

• Automatically highlighting healthier or lower-cost alternatives.
• Adapting product suggestions based on household consumption cycles.
• Offering context-aware promotions depending on time, season or location.

Serving up success in modern grocery commerce

As grocery retail becomes increasingly digital, retailers need technology that keeps pace with evolving customer expectations while supporting operational efficiency at scale. From managing high-order volumes and real-time inventory updates to delivering personalized experiences across channels, success depends on a commerce platform that adapts as the business evolves.

With commercetools, grocery retailers can create connected shopping experiences that bridge digital and physical touchpoints, helping customers move seamlessly between online ordering, delivery, pickup and in-store shopping. This is especially important as fulfillment models like BOPIS and curbside pickup continue to gain traction.

Food and grocery retailers can benefit from four key capabilities:

1. Unified customer experiences: Deliver consistent product information, pricing, promotions and shopping experiences across every touchpoint. Whether customers shop online, through a mobile app or in-store, they expect a seamless and connected journey.
2. Agility to meet changing customer expectations: Consumer preferences evolve quickly, from new fulfillment options and loyalty programs to emerging shopping behaviors. Grocery retailers need the flexibility to introduce new experiences and services without disrupting existing operations.
3. Scalability for peak demand: Grocery shopping is characterized by frequent purchases and fluctuating demand during seasonal events. Retailers need technology that can support high transaction volumes and maintain performance during seasonal peaks, promotions and other high-traffic events.
4. Actionable data and AI-driven insights: Real-time customer and operational data help retailers better understand shopping behaviors, optimize inventory management and deliver more relevant experiences. Combined with AI capabilities, these insights can improve forecasting, personalization and fulfillment decisions across the business.

Online grocery winners with commercetools

PLUS Supermarkets

The leading grocery chain in the Netherlands, PLUS Supermarkets, adopted commercetools to create a more responsive and tailored online shopping experience, increasing webshop speed by 50% and successful order rate by 89%. Thanks to commercetools, the retailer implemented an award-winning omnichannel experience that works seamlessly during peak times. 

Wild Fork Foods‍

Wild Fork Foods, a D2C retailer specializing in high-quality protein, leveraged commercetools to enhance its eCommerce operations, enabling efficient management of fresh and frozen goods. By utilizing composable commerce, Wild Fork Foods optimized inventory management and expanded its ability to deliver high-quality products to customers quickly and reliably.

Woolworths

Australia’s largest supermarket chain, Woolworths, uses commercetools to expand its on-demand grocery delivery market with a dedicated app. With a composable approach, Woolworths now has a fast and scalable technology to manage the heightened demand generated by mobile shopping channels. 

The next course in grocery and food eCommerce 

The online grocery shopping market is rife with opportunities but also presents unique challenges. As consumer expectations evolve, retailers must adopt innovative solutions to stay competitive. commercetools offers powerful solutions to unlock this sector’s potential, enabling grocers to deliver seamless, personalized experiences while addressing operational complexities.

‍Ready to see what commercetools can do? Contact our team to get started.

FAQs

What is the future of grocery eCommerce?

The future of grocery eCommerce is a unified retail model where online and in-store experiences are seamlessly connected and powered by real-time data and AI-driven automation.

How is AI changing grocery retail?

AI is transforming grocery retail by improving forecasting, enabling personalized shopping and increasingly executing operational tasks such as replenishment, substitution and delivery optimization.

What is agentic AI in grocery?

Agentic AI refers to systems that can autonomously take action, such as managing inventory, selecting substitutions or optimizing fulfillment, rather than only providing recommendations.

Why is online grocery growing?

Online grocery is growing due to rising consumer demand for convenience, flexible fulfillment options, and faster, more reliable shopping experiences across channels.

Can grocery eCommerce support sustainability goals?

Yes. Modern grocery retailers are increasingly using real-time data, AI and automation to support sustainability initiatives. Better demand forecasting can reduce food waste, inventory optimization helps prevent overproduction, and more efficient delivery routes can lower transportation emissions.