BFCM 2026: The key eCommerce trends retailers need to know and act on

Why expectations are running high for the 2026 BFCM season

The holiday season is almost upon us, so what should brands, retailers and even B2B organizations be watching out for in 2026? The past few years have given us clues about Black Friday and Cyber Monday, or BFCM for short, and how it’s shaping up this year. 

The first thing to consider is that BFCM has become a season, giving retailers more wiggle room to increase revenue during an extended period. Unsurprisingly, optimism is all around: 96% of global retail executives expect revenue growth in 2026 and 81% anticipate margin expansion, according to Deloitte. 

Mastercard Economics Institute goes even further and predicts the strongest holiday season in four years, with spending growth of 5.5% year over year. 

This YoY growth is driven by various indicators. AI-assisted shopping, which debuted last year, is expected to claim a bigger slice of the eCommerce pie, as consumers frantically ask their AI buddies for assistance on product discovery, evaluation and even purchasing directly within these channels. 

Social platforms like TikTok are also quickly on the AI bandwagon, just ahead of the holiday season. Retail giants such as Amazon and Google are investing heavily in AI-powered BFCM shopping, too. 

For consumers, the holiday season is the chance to find deals not only on high-ticket items and gifts, but also on essentials, from clothing basics to hygiene products. Shoppers are also becoming more deliberate with so many options available, which puts pressure on retailers to focus on value rather than simple discounting while protecting their margins. 

So, what should retailers expect from BFCM 2026? Let’s dive in. 

Trend #1: BFCM has officially become a season on a global scale

It’s been a few years since Black Friday/Cyber Monday started earlier and lasted longer. Even so, Thanksgiving has been the official kickoff to Black Friday, a day of wild shopping sprees that then expanded into Cyber Monday. While this tradition remains somewhat, it’s now common practice for promotional days to span an entire season, which may include several campaigns and engagement options. 

In 2026 specifically, the calendar is also encouraging an earlier start. Thanksgiving falls relatively late in November 2026, compressing the traditional holiday shopping window. The implication is that BFCM is becoming less of a four-day event and more of a multi-week customer journey.

This also reflects a broader change in consumer behavior. Shoppers are increasingly researching products and comparing prices before the traditional BFCM weekend, while retailers are competing for attention earlier in the season. 

In fact, 58% of consumers want BFCM communication at least a month early, and 82% expect communication at least two weeks before kick-off, according to Sinch.

Moreover, it’s worth noting that even though the tradition remains Thanksgiving-centric, many countries have adopted BFCM practices with gusto, from Brazil to Australia. Many have adapted it to local flavors, such as rebranding it as “White Friday” in the MENA region. 

Key takeaways for retailers: 

• Don’t build your BFCM strategy around November 27–30 alone: Start earlier with product discovery, wish-listing, early access and segmented offers ahead of the promotional peak.
• Be careful to apply the same discount throughout the season: Give customers a reason to engage at each stage.
• Localize your BFCM strategy where applicable: Adapt messaging, offers and promotions to local shopping habits, cultural moments and terminology rather than applying the same BFCM campaign across every market.

Trend #2: Value will matter more than the biggest discount

Consumers still want deals, but “50% off” is not necessarily enough to win the sale. In fact, consumers are becoming more deliberate about their purchases:

• 34% of consumers plan to spend less, compared with 25% who plan to spend more, per Sinch. 
• 82% of global consumers say they use products longer before replacing them, according to McKinsey.

This shifts the dynamic from a purely discount-driven approach to one focused on value-seeking consumers, a trend Deloitte identifies as one of the defining dynamics for retail in 2026. Durability, quality and long-term value have become important parts of the BFCM proposition.

Adobe’s 2026 holiday research echoes this trend and describes it as “value-first shopping”, with consumers continuing to seek out deals while eCommerce captures an increasing share of holiday spending.

For retailers, the opportunity is to move the BFCM conversation away from “How big is your discount?” and toward “How much value am I getting?”

This may include:  

• Bundles that increase perceived savings without cutting the price of every product.
• Free or discounted shipping on orders above a sensible threshold.
• Loyalty rewards or early-access benefits.
• Gifts with purchase.
• Exclusive BFCM products or limited editions.
• Flexible payment options.
• Stronger warranties or services.

Key takeaways for retailers: 

• Review your BFCM offers based on margin as well as conversion: Look for ways to create a stronger value proposition through bundles, loyalty, services and shipping rather than relying exclusively on deeper discounts.
• Build differentiation into your BFCM assortment: Use exclusive products, owned brands, unique bundles or partner offerings that are difficult for competitors to price-match directly.

Trend #3: AI search and shopping agents will increase during BFCM

AI has already become part of the shopping journey, from product research and comparison to recommendations and customer service. 

AI-driven traffic to retail websites grew 127% year over year in August 2026 and is expected to remain strong through the holiday season, according to Adobe.

Bain revealed that AI platforms such as ChatGPT, Google Gemini and Claude also rose in search visits, increasing from 17% to 24%. A separate 13% of online shoppers now say they’ll use a retailer’s own AI shopping agent like Walmart’s Sparky or Amazon’s Alexa for Shopping, a habit that barely registered a year ago.  

Deloitte’s research points to an even bigger strategic shift: 81% of retail executives surveyed believe generative AI could weaken brand loyalty by 2027 because AI recommendations may prioritize factors such as price, product fit and value over brand recognition. That has major implications for BFCM.

The retailer may need to win that recommendation before the customer ever visits its website, even if fully agentic shopping, whereby an AI agent buys on behalf of the consumer, is still some way from becoming mainstream. 

Even so, giants like Google Gemini and OpenAI are shifting from passive conversational assistants to active ecosystems of agentic commerce. 

Key takeaway for retailers: 

• Treat product data as a marketing asset: Make sure product titles, descriptions, specifications, availability, pricing, reviews and shipping information are accurate, structured and easy for AI systems to interpret. BFCM preparation increasingly means optimizing for AI discovery rather than just traditional search.

Trend #4: AI-powered social commerce is coming to the forefront

Social commerce has been part of the shopping journey for years, but in 2026, the bigger shift is that social platforms are increasingly connecting discovery, recommendation and purchase in the same experience.

Consumers may discover a product through a creator, see it demonstrated in a Reel or TikTok, compare it with alternatives, ask an AI assistant for more information and increasingly complete the purchase without leaving the platform. TikTok is pushing this model further: In October 2026, it launched an AI Shopping Assistant that can provide product information, shipping details, sizing and availability, alongside a new one-click checkout that lets users buy directly from the For You feed.

Meta is moving in a similar direction, with its Meta AI shopping experience using recommendations and content from creators and communities across its apps, while Instagram has expanded product tagging and affiliate links for creators. Meta has also introduced AI-powered tools that can use product data across shopping experiences, including creator product tags and Meta AI’s shopping mode.

The implication is that BFCM content needs to do more than capture attention: It needs to help shoppers decide. The retailers best positioned for this shift will give creators useful product information, strong creative assets and enough flexibility to produce content that feels native to the platform, not like another version of a display ad.

Key takeaway for retailers: 

• Treat social as part of the shopping journey, not just an advertising channel: Build content that helps consumers discover, compare and understand products, make your product data easy for platforms and AI systems to use, and give creators and affiliates a clear path from recommendation to purchase.

Trend #5: Omnichannel will become a profitability strategy, not just a customer-experience strategy

Mastercard forecasts US online holiday sales to grow 11% in 2026, while physical retail is expected to grow 3.6% — its strongest pace since 2022. For retailers, the opportunity isn’t to choose between online and offline, but to make the two work together.

That could mean:

• Checking store inventory online before visiting.
• Buying online and collecting in-store.
• Returning online purchases in-store.
• Using stores as local fulfillment centers.
• Offering products online that aren't physically stocked in every store.
• Connecting loyalty and customer data across channels.

This becomes especially important during BFCM, when inventory moves quickly and fulfillment networks are under pressure. For retailers, unified commerce can do more than improve the customer experience, helping move inventory faster, reduce fulfillment costs and provide alternative ways to complete a sale when one channel reaches its limits.

This is exactly what Chemist Warehouse, Australia’s largest discount pharmacy chain, has already accomplished. With 500+ physical stores, its digital experience plays a role within a much larger retail ecosystem, helping customers discover products, check prices and understand availability before deciding how and where to purchase.

The company connected its commerce environment with real-time inventory data across its store network, enabling experiences such as omnichannel fulfillment. Approximately 60% of Chemist Warehouse’s online sales now come through Click & Collect.

Key takeaway for retailers: 

• Before BFCM, map your inventory and fulfillment options across every channel: Make sure customers can see accurate availability and understand all their purchase, pickup and return options.

Trend #6: Delivery and returns will become part of the BFCM proposition

DHL’s 2026 global eCommerce research, based on 29,000 shoppers and 5,800 businesses across 29 countries, highlights the growing importance of delivery and returns. Seven in ten shoppers say they will abandon a purchase if they aren’t offered the delivery and return options they want, while 67% have abandoned a cart because of the delivery offering.

This is particularly relevant during BFCM. The pressure created by a huge spike in orders can quickly turn a successful promotion into a customer-service problem. The offer might be attractive, but consumers also want to know:

• When will it arrive? 
• How much will delivery cost? 
• Can I collect it somewhere convenient? 
• What happens if I need to return it?

At the same time, retailers are under pressure to control return costs. Forrester predicts that 2026 will mark a shift toward stricter eCommerce return policies as retailers focus more heavily on profitability.

Key takeaway for retailers: 

• Make delivery and returns part of the BFCM campaign itself: Communicate delivery dates, thresholds and return conditions clearly, and make sure your fulfillment network can support the promises you’re making in your marketing.

So, what will BFCM 2026 ultimately look like?

The BFCM is getting bigger and creating more revenue, but it has also become more fragmented, more personalized and more competitive for attention. 

Consumers will discover deals through AI, social platforms, search, marketplaces, creators, email and physical stores. They’ll compare prices more carefully, expect greater convenience and increasingly judge an offer by its total value rather than its headline discount.

That means the retailers best positioned for BFCM 2026 will be the ones that make the entire journey work better:

• Be discovered wherever customers are searching, scrolling or asking AI for recommendations.
• Offer genuine value without unnecessarily sacrificing margin.
• Remove friction from checkout, payment, delivery and returns.
• Connect channels so customers can move seamlessly between online and physical retail.
• Use AI strategically, focusing not only on customer-facing experiences but also on forecasting, merchandising, content and operational efficiency.

In other words, the strongest BFCM strategies will connect discovery, value, purchase and fulfillment into one seamless customer journey.

Ready to see how commercetools can support your next high-traffic event? Contact our sales team or start our 60-day free trial to learn how your business can scale during BFCM and other important sales events. 

FAQs

What does BFCM stand for, and when is it in 2026?

BFCM stands for Black Friday Cyber Monday. In 2026, Black Friday is on November 27 and Cyber Monday is on November 30, although promotions now start much earlier.

Why is BFCM becoming a season instead of a weekend?

Both shoppers and retailers are starting earlier. 58% of consumers want BFCM communication at least a month in advance (Sinch), and Thanksgiving falls late in November 2026, which compresses the traditional window.

How is AI changing BFCM shopping?

More shoppers use AI tools to discover and compare products. Adobe reports AI-driven traffic to retail sites grew 127% year over year in August 2026, and Bain found visits from AI platforms such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude rose from 17% to 24%. Retailers should ensure product data is accurate and structured so that AI systems can read it.

Do shoppers still want big discounts at BFCM?

Deals still matter, but value matters more. 34% of consumers plan to spend less versus 25% who plan to spend more (Sinch), so bundles, loyalty benefits and shipping thresholds can work better than deeper discounts.

Why do delivery and returns matter during BFCM?

DHL’s 2026 research found that seven in ten shoppers will abandon a purchase if they aren’t offered the delivery and return options they want, and 67% have abandoned a cart because of the delivery offering.